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☆ Stocks enter 'belief' phase with most investors converted to bulls. What it means going forward
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The sheer persistence of the equity rally, with the S & P 500 up 16 of 18 weeks and refusing to succumb to supposed late-February seasonal weakness, has converted the cautious. Still, by some lights, stocks' valuation is one of the better sentiment indicators, and by that measure the investment community is pretty enthusiastic. More simply, we continue to see elevated but not alarming P/Es in the S & P 500 broadly while the median P/E of the top 10 names in the index remains close to past peaks." Coming at a time when the S & P 500 is more than 13% above its 200-day moving average — pretty stretched — and we haven't had even a 3% pullback since October. The "right" cyclical sectors are leading (industrials and consumer discretionary in addition to tech), and the equal-weight S & P 500 is nosing toward its old high.

Persons: Scott Rubner, maven, Goldman Sachs, there's, it's, hustled, gunning, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Citi's Scott Chronert, Barclays Venu Krishna, Lori Calvasina, haven't, I've, We've, Stocks, – Organizations: Micro, Dell Technologies, ARM Holdings, Bank of America, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Animal spirits are back in the market, fueling 2021-like speculative activity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.

Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S

☆ Megacap U.S. stocks are carrying the rest of the world. Here are the risks, and where to look for diversification
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France

☆ Wall Street heads into the week ahead worrying the rally to record highs is running out of steam
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street continues to climb a wall of worry even as investors deliberate how much longer equities can maintain their record run. But questions remain for investors after some major disappointments in an intense week suggested more challenges ahead. Apple dropped 3% this week after reporting lackluster earnings, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Elsewhere in corporate earnings, regional banks as represented by the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF slid 7% after poor results from New York Community Bank spurred investor fears of a wider contagion. Signs of market weakness For investors, there may be more issues in the market going forward in 2024.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Apple, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Russell, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, CNBC's, Sonders, Lehman, Raymond James, Josh Beck, James McCann, Abrdn, McCann, Rhys WIlliams, Williams, it's, Art Hogan, They're, Hogan, Estee, Eli Lilly, Ralph Lauren, Rowe Price, Philip Morris Organizations: Meta, Dow Jones, Regional Banking, New York Community Bank, Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Markets, Wayve Capital Management, Riley, Atlanta, PMI, Simon Property, Companies, Tyson Foods, Semiconductor, Caterpillar, Prudential Financial, Ford Motor, Enphase Energy, GE Healthcare Technologies, Consumer, Walt Disney Co, Wynn Resorts, PayPal, Brands, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide, Uber Technologies, Costco Wholesale, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, Rowe Price Group, ConocoPhillips, The Hershey Co, Philip Morris International, PepsiCo Locations: China

☆ Goldman says cash on sidelines will fuel January stock run before it fades in February
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-03 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Even 2022, when the S & P 500 fell more than 19%, saw bigger inflows. These investors missed out with the S & P 500 ending the year with a 9-week winning streak to bring the benchmark's return for 2023 to 24%. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1 year The S & P 500 fell to start the trading year on Tuesday and was indicated to fall slightly again on Wednesday. January is typically the strongest month of year for equity inflows anyway, Goldman notes. If investors allocate the typical percentage to stocks they do every January, this month could see $60 billion of inflows.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Scott Rubner, Rubner, Michael Bloom Organizations: Global

☆ Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan

☆ Zero-day-options, weak technicals and China: Breaking down the market’s August headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"The S & P is not quite there, but we would be very surprised if it doesn't follow the NDX's lead." On top of that, some are worried that another real estate crisis in China may be brewing. "It's been almost two years since China Evergrande Group, once China's largest real estate developer, shocked the financial markets by defaulting on $340 billion in debt. Since then, the Chinese real estate market has been in a serious slump," wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Investment in real estate fell 8.5% y/y during the first seven months of this year."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, 0DTE, Technicals, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, It's, Ed Yardeni, we're, Sarat Sethi, Johnson, Sethi, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq, China Evergrande Group, Yardeni, Investment, U.S, JPMorgan Locations: China, U.S, Freeport, McMoRan, Haleon

☆ There are many reasons to be optimistic about the market, even with the China wildcard
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

More interesting is the S & P 500 , which is down 15.5% and only 16% from its old closing high on Jan. 4. Another help for the bulls: stock market valuations are not at crazy levels. Earnings declines are never welcome, but the stock market is a lot more reasonably valued now than the third quarter of 2020. The S & P was trading at crazy multiples: roughly 26 times 2020 earnings and 21 times 2021 earnings (the long-term average is roughly 17). Today, the S & P is trading at a far more reasonable valuation of about 17.4 times 2023 earnings estimates.

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